Global beef production is projected to decline again in 2026, with Rabobank forecasting a fall of around 3.1%. The bank’s latest outlook points to ongoing supply pressures across several major producing regions.
Brazil, the US, and Canada are each expected to record lower output next year. The downturn follows an already weaker 2025, with global volumes this year estimated to contract by about 0.8% compared with 2024. New Zealand is set to register the steepest percentage drop in 2025, and the US is forecast to take the largest hit in tonnage.
Supply constraints continue to push retail beef prices higher worldwide, particularly in the US and Brazil. Reduced cattle availability is also weighing on processors. Tyson Foods has warned of further volume pressure and is projecting an adjusted operating loss of up to $600m for its beef division in the current fiscal year. The company has announced the closure of its beef-processing facility in Lexington, Nebraska, as part of efforts to restructure its meat operations.
Canada is experiencing a similar tightening trend. Net beef exports from January to August fell by about 41,000 tonnes year on year, with supplies expected to narrow further in 2026.
New Zealand’s output continues to soften. Adult cattle production between January and September reached just over 475,000 tonnes, roughly 6% below the same period last year. Fourth-quarter production is expected to be around 2% lower, indicating a full-year decline of about 5% for 2025.
China is the only major market forecast to post a slight increase. Rabobank expects modest production growth in 2025 as the country works through earlier oversupply and prices begin to stabilise.